Aurodeep (for Info only, not official)

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Aurodeep

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    ...It also reveals an interesting pattern in the socio-political contract that exists between the Indian public and the government; wherein the former has relatively docilely accepted the radical disruptions to their day to day life by the latter. We may or may not eventually live in an India where black money is no longer a norm. Similarly one can only hope that some day GST will reach a level of maturity where it lives up to its promise of a simple, comprehensive tax that eases doing business. However there is little debate among economists that the double policy whammy has profoundly impacted the economy over the past one year. The World Bank, IMF, ADB and OECD have all downgraded India’s growth forecast this year, in an otherwise cheerful outlook for the global economy. ...

    TOI on Nov. 23, 2017, 2:08 a.m.

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    ...To put this in perspective, it is a little less than half of the entire annual fiscal deficit of the central government. Some argue that this was the need of the hour. After all, reckless bank lending and feckless corporate governance has frozen investments, paralysed credit, and brought economic growth to uncomfortably low levels. To add to this is a strict set of international banking regulations known as Basel III that are expected to kick in by 2019. It will compel Indian banks to raise billions of dollars to increase their capital base. Given that a large chunk of them are publicly held, the problem lands itself right at the government’s doorstep. Basic economics dictates that free lunches do not exist. So who will be picking up the tab? Finance minister Arun Jaitley seemed rather nonchalant about the answer. ...

    TOI on Oct. 26, 2017, 2:02 a.m.

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    ...The voluminous report was made public in April. If finance minister Arun Jaitley were to accept the report’s recommendations in the upcoming Budget session, it will, for starters, have an immediate economic impact. The report’s ‘glide path’ for fiscal deficit suggests that the next three years will require it to be maintained at 3% of GDP. This means tight GoI spending when the economy is battling a slowdown, private investment is sputtering, and banks are awaiting a potentially expensive bailout. Chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, who is part of the panel, in a dissent note writes that he disagrees with most of the recommendations. Following his submission, the other panel members draft a detailed rebuttal, politely titled ‘Rejoinder to the dissent note’. Economists have good reason to get emotional about the right fiscal policy. ...

    TOI on Oct. 25, 2017, 11:15 p.m.

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    ...This is the best economic condition that the world has seen in nearly a decade since the calamitous 2008 global financial crisis. Global growth is expected to clock a whopping 3.6% this year, and push 3.7% in the next. The US has picked up pace with steady growth in consumption, business investment and employment. Europe has woken from its stupor and is finally stretching itself out of its protracted stagnation. China’s strong domestic demand is leading a revival in exports in most of Asia, leaving factories across the region with ringing cash registers. Central banks in developed economies are in fact so confident of growth that they are revving up to reverse their decade old policy of keeping policy interest rates at record lows. India’s best years of growing at 9% levels have come in years when the global economy also did well. Exports have been the unsung hero of India’s growth story. Between 2000 and 2013 Indian exports’ share in GDP almost doubled to nearly 26%. ...

    TOI on Oct. 19, 2017, 2 a.m.