Dharmakirti Joshi (for Info only, not official)

author

Dharmakirti Joshi

We are collecting authors'profile. As soon as we get, we update it. Please note this is not official profile. The information including photo is collected from web.

| Contact |

| twitter |

| Linkedin |

    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...In nominal terms, merchandise exports between April and October are up 9.4% y-o-y, compared with 0.2% in the corresponding period last fiscal. That’s above the average of -1.3% for the last five fiscals (FY13-FY17), but much below the 22.5% growth seen in the preceding five (FY08-FY12). In the past few years, the slowdown in exports could be attributed at least in part to tepid global growth and falling trade intensity. However, this year, the global economy has seen a strong cyclical upturn across geographies and sectors, driven by stronger growth in investment, trade and industrial production. As per S&P Global estimates, global GDP is expected to reverse a two-year slowdown and grow 3.6% in 2017, higher than the 3.1% logged in 2016. The pickup is expected to be broad-based, across both advanced and emerging market economies. ...

    Live Mint on Dec. 5, 2017, 11:55 p.m.

    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...Typically, inflation peaks whenever there is a production shortfall. On average, the peaks have hovered 40 percentage points above the “zero” level, while the dips are only 12-13 percentage points below. Somewhat predictably, therefore, pulses have seen an average annual inflation rate of 12%—the highest among food crops—in the past 12 years. The current cycle has seen extraordinary volatility. The steepest peak (49%) was in November 2015 and the steepest fall (-32.6%) in June. Also, the price fluctuation has been broad-based (across pulses) compared with earlier cycles, where inflation was driven by individual categories of pulses. This dip is also different from those observed in the past, since more than half the price rise seen in the previous year has been wiped out. A bumper crop in fiscal 2017 (40% jump in production), accompanied by six million tonnes of imports and exports and stocking restrictions, led to oversupply and price collapse. ...

    Live Mint on Oct. 2, 2017, 12:58 a.m.

    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...Not just that, CAD’s financing has also become more robust. Prior to fiscal 2014, financing depended a lot on foreign portfolio inflows, a chunk of which is “hot money” that exits quickly, leading to volatility in the exchange rate. The good part is, foreign direct investments (FDI), which are way more durable and stable, have surpassed foreign portfolio inflows in the past two years. FDI often brings along benefits such as increased employment opportunities and greater technological know-how. Since fiscal 2015, FDI inflows alone have been sufficient to finance India’s CAD, and lately, positive portfolio inflows have been icing on the cake. For instance, fiscal 2017 saw net FDI of $35.6 billion, along with net foreign portfolio inflows of $7.6 billion. In the process, India has become more resilient to externalities, but it is not immune. ...

    Live Mint on June 22, 2017, 4:48 a.m.

    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...The gross value added (GVA) prognosis has been lowered 10 basis points from the previous estimate of 7.4%. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Not so surprisingly, RBI cut the inflation forecast for the second half of this fiscal sharply to 3.5-4.5% from 5% earlier. So macroeconomic undercurrents have softened Mint Road’s tonality, not the rate. In its February 2017 review of the monetary policy, the RBI had sprung a surprise by shifting its stance from accommodative to neutral, which afforded it the flexibility to move cyclically or counter-cyclically. Undershooting inflation, if perceived as durable, would veer intent towards a rate cut. ...

    Live Mint on June 8, 2017, 5:14 a.m.

    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...And that’s assuming food and fuel inflation stays at around 4.4% and 3%, respectively, which is the average so far in fiscal 2017. That’s a tough ask, given that core inflation has never fallen that low for a sustained period of time. Demonetization brought CPI inflation down sharply to an average 4.6% in the 11 months of the current fiscal year. But that’s about to reverse with rising upside risks to fuel and food inflation, and the impact of demonetization fading. We foresee CPI inflation averaging 5% in fiscal 2018. While that’s still within the 4% (+ or - 2%) range set by the government, it is higher than the 4% central value that the central bank is now targeting. Achieving that on a sustained basis will, therefore, mean continuation of the non-accommodative fiscal stance, and perhaps a tighter, and more disinflationary, monetary policy over the medium run. ...

    Live Mint on March 24, 2017, 12:20 a.m.


    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...But RBI stayed put, and surprised the markets by retaining the repo rate at 6.25%. This suggests the central bank is expecting only a transitory impact on the economy of the withdrawal of banknotes of Rs500 and Rs1,000 denomination. The six members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) unanimously decided to wait and assess both domestic and global developments. RBI’s prognosis of the implications of demonetization, which has been quite disruptive, had been eagerly awaited. While it has trimmed the gross value-added (GVA) forecast by 50bps to 7.1%, it still sees risks to inflation. ALSO READ: Why RBI didn’t cut the policy rate After demonetization, the macroeconomic environment has become more uncertain with downside risks increasing, at least in the near term. The risks to growth have reared up because any disruption in the flow of money, the economy’s lifeblood, impacts business cycles fairly quickly. ...

    Live Mint on Dec. 8, 2016, 3:08 a.m.

    Media Object

    Short extract

    ...Among the various externalities it triggered is a slowdown in international trade because demand wilted. The redoubtable Larry Summers flagged the crushed demand as “secular stagnation”, citing economist Alvin Hansen’s postulate of the 1930s—of the increasing propensity to save and decreasing propensity to invest. Since 2012, global trade has grown only 3.1% annually, or half the rate attained in the three decades preceding. Not only is trade slowing, its intensity with respect to global growth has also come down. Meaning, trade outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) before the financial crisis, and then swung the other way, presenting a big worry for export-dependent economies. Small wonder then that India’s export performance suffered. But our analysis shows the decline in exports is more than what was warranted by the global slowdown. ...

    Live Mint on Nov. 28, 2016, 12:13 a.m.